The claims that the Bitcoin bull market is over are growing stronger. Ki Young Ju, CEO of crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant, predicted that Bitcoin’s current bull cycle is over and that prices could move sideways or downward for the next 6 to 12 months.
Ki Young Ju stated in a statement on Telegram that the decline in market liquidity and the lack of new capital inflows are putting pressure on Bitcoin prices. Ju said, “New liquidity is needed. On-chain realized market value is stagnant and there are no new capital inflow signals. For example, BlackRock’s IBIT fund has experienced three consecutive weeks of outflows.” He attributed the failure of Bitcoin prices to hold at $100,000 levels despite record trading volume to the lack of new buyers.
Technical indicators are giving a bearish signal
According to CryptoQuant’s latest report, the MVRV Z-score indicator, which measures the relationship between Bitcoin’s market value and its realized value, has fallen below its 365-day moving average. This indicates that price momentum is weakening and that a deeper correction is likely in the market.
The report states that the support level between $75,000 and $78,000 is critical. Net sales in US-based spot ETFs and slowing buying by whales are increasing downward pressure on Bitcoin at these levels. CryptoQuant analysts warn that if these levels are lost, the price could fall even more sharply.
Whale movements and weakening demand are weighing on prices
According to analysis by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, one of the main reasons for the end of Bitcoin’s bull cycle is that large investors, known as “new whales,” are selling at low prices. The net outflows, especially in US-based spot ETFs, and the selling pressure from whales are having a serious impact on the market.
In 2024, there were two peaks in Bitcoin demand, in March and December. However, the rapid decline in demand after the peak in March is similar to the 2017-2018 period. CryptoQuant data indicates that such peak movements usually result in deep market corrections.
The CryptoQuant report also noted that Bitcoin’s one-year moving average has begun to trend downward. This coincides with the beginning of long-term bear markets in past cycles. For example, Bitcoin prices retracement of up to 80% following the 2018 bull cycle.
Market expectations and possible scenarios
CryptoQuant’s report states that if the weakening demand and selling pressure continue in the current market conditions, Bitcoin’s price could fall to $63,000. It is stated that selling pressure could increase even more, especially if the $75,000 to $78,000 support zone cannot be maintained.
Considering that Bitcoin has lost approximately 22% of its value since its peak of $109,000 in January, it is stated that the selling pressure in the market could affect long-term price movements. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju expects the downward trend in Bitcoin prices to continue if there is no change in market conditions.
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